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Dự báo giá vàng: XAU/USD dừng đà giảm dưới 2.000$, dự kiến thoái lui khi Fed có xu hướng nâng lãi suất

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  • Giá Vàng đã phục hồi sau đợt bán tháo tại thời điểm mở cửa và tăng trở lại trên mức kháng cự 2.000,00$.
  • Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp chạm đáy của Mỹ đã phục hồi kỳ vọng việc Fed sẽ tăng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản liên tiếp.
  • Củng cố kỳ vọng về một đợt tăng lãi suất nữa từ Fed đã đẩy lãi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Mỹ cao hơn.

Giá vàng (XAU/USD) chứng kiến lực bán mạnh khi mở cửa nhưng cho thấy sự phục hồi khá trong bối cảnh có sự hiện diện của người mua nhạy bén ở mức thấp hơn. Kim loại quý đã giảm mạnh xuống dưới mức hỗ trợ tâm lý là 2.000,00$ do cơ hội nâng lãi suất thêm 25 điểm cơ bản (bps) đã tăng đáng kể nhưng đã cố gắng phục hồi các đợt giảm và đã thu hẹp trở lại trên mức kháng cự 2.000,00$. Công cụ CME Fedwatch cho thấy tăng đột ngột cơ hội nâng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản lên hơn 65%.

Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp chạm đáy trong nền kinh tế Mỹ đã lấy lại kỳ vọng về đợt nâng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản liên tiếp từ Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed). Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp ở mức 3,5% vào thứ 6, thấp hơn so với kỳ vọng và mức công bố trước đó là 3,6%.
Trong khi đó, dữ liệu Bảng lương phi nông nghiệp (NFP) của Mỹ vẫn yếu khi nền kinh tế Mỹ có thêm việc làm thấp hơn một chút vào tháng 3 ở mức 236 nghìn so với mức đồng thuận là 240 nghìn.

Các nhà phân tích tại Wells Fargo đã chỉ ra rằng đây là loại báo cáo của nhân viên mà họ tin rằng Fed muốn thấy: tăng trưởng việc làm chậm lại một cách có trật tự, nguồn cung lao động mở rộng và tăng trưởng tiền lương đang tiến gần hơn đến tỷ lệ phù hợp với mục tiêu lạm phát 2% của ngân hàng trung ương. Họ mong đợi một đợt nâng lãi suất khác 25 điểm cơ bản vào tháng 5, có lẽ là lần cuối cùng.

Trong khi đó, hợp đồng tương lai S&P500 tiếp tục có những động thái tích cực hơn nữa, được thể hiện vào cuối ngày thứ 6, với hy vọng rằng Fed sẽ nhanh chóng áp dụng lãi suất cuối kỳ. Chỉ số Đô la Mỹ (DXY) đã cho thấy sự điều chỉnh cận biên nhưng đang cố gắng để duy trì trên 102,00. Củng cố kỳ vọng về một đợt nâng lãi suất nữa từ Fed đã đẩy lãi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Mỹ cao hơn. Lãi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Mỹ kỳ hạn 10 năm tăng vọt lên trên 3,41%.

Phân tích kỹ thuật Vàng

Giá Vàng đang được bán đấu giá trong mô hình biểu đồ kênh tăng theo biểu đồ hàng giờ, trong đó những người tham gia thị trường coi việc điều chỉnh là cơ hội mua. Kim loại màu vàng đang nỗ lực để duy trì trên mức kháng cự 2.000,00$.

Đường trung bình động hàm mũ (EMA) 20 và 50 kỳ sắp tạo ra sự giao nhau trong xu hướng giảm khoảng 2.011,50$.

Ngoài ra, Chỉ báo sức mạnh tương đối (RSI) (14) dự kiến sẽ rớt xuống dưới 40,00, dẫn đến đà giảm.

Biểu đồ hàng giờ của Vàng

Biểu đồ

XAU/USD

TỔNG QUAN
Giá mới nhất hôm nay 2005.58
Thay đổi hàng ngày hôm nay -2.24
% thay đổi hàng ngày hôm nay -0.11
Giá mở cửa hàng ngày hôm nay 2007.82
XU HƯỚNG
SMA20 hàng ngày 1962.7
SMA50 hàng ngày 1898.83
SMA100 hàng ngày 1862.26
SMA200 hàng ngày 1787.74
MỨC
Mức cao hôm qua 2021.5
Mức thấp hôm qua 2000.93
Mức cao tuần trước 2032.11
Mức thấp tuần trước 1949.83
Mức cao tháng trước 2009.88
Mức thấp tháng trước 1809.46
Mức Fibonacci 38,2% hàng ngày 2008.79
Mức Fibonacci 61,8% hàng ngày 2013.64
Mức S1 Pivot Point hàng ngày 1998.67
Mức S2 Pivot Point hàng ngày 1989.51
Mức S3 Pivot Point hàng ngày 1978.1
Mức R1 Pivot Point hàng ngày 2019.24
Mức R2 Pivot Point hàng ngày 2030.65
Mức R3 Pivot Point hàng ngày 2039.81

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