Nhiều chuyên viên phân tích cho rằng có lý do để kỳ vọng giá dầu cao hơn sau khi liên minh OPEC+ thông báo cắt giảm sản lượng từ tháng 5 cho tới cuối năm 2023.
Sau thông tin OPEC+ cắt giảm sản lượng, hợp đồng dầu Brent và dầu WTI tăng hơn 6% lên hơn 80 USD/thùng trong phiên 03/04.
* Tăng hơn 6%, dầu tăng mạnh nhất trong gần 1 năm
Lý do để lạc quan
Chuyên viên phân tích vĩ mô độc lập Piero Cingari cho rằng cứ mỗi đợt nguồn cung tăng/giảm 1 triệu thùng, giá dầu thường giảm/tăng 20 USD/thùng, với giả định nhu cầu không thay đổi.
“Hiện có đủ lý do để kỳ vọng giá dầu cao hơn trong tương lai gần, có thể kể tới như Trung Quốc đang tái mở cửa kinh tế và dự trữ dầu khí chiến lược của Mỹ dang ở mức thấp nhất trong 40 năm (thậm chí đang có tin đồn, Mỹ cần phải lấp đầy kho dự trữ trở lại)”, ông nói. “Một đợt mua bù thiếu (short squeeze) có thể diễn ra. Tôi không loại trừ khả năng giá dầu WTI tăng lên hơn 90 USD/thùng, thậm chí 95 USD/thùng trong tương lai gần”.
Ông Cingari cho biết các NHTW giờ phải đối mặt với áp lực lạm phát gia tăng từ chi phí năng lượng.“Đây là ác mộng với họ. Tuy nhiên, trong vài tháng tới giá dầu chỉ chững đà tăng nếu Fed nâng lãi suất mạnh hơn dự báo và rủi ro suy thoái tăng mạnh”, vị chuyên gia này nhận định.
Giá sẽ tăng vọt vào giữa mùa hè?
Trong khi đó, Tamas Varga, Chuyên viên phân tích tại PVM Oil Associates, cho biết nếu các đợt cắt giảm sản lượng của OPEC được thực thi hoàn toàn, thị trường dầu sẽ rơi vào cảnh thiếu hụt nguồn cung trong quý 2/2023 và càng thiếu trong nửa cuối năm 2023.
“Điều này sẽ tạo mức sàn 80 USD/thùng với dầu Brent và có thể đẩy giá vượt 90 USD/thùng nếu nhu cầu bắt đầu tăng mạnh sau tháng 6/2023”, ông nói thêm.
Trước đó, Goldman Sachs đã nâng dự báo dầu Brent sau tuyên bố của OPEC+. Họ dự báo dầu Brent chạm mức 95 USD/thùng trước khi kết thúc năm 2023, cao hơn 5 USD/thùng so với dự báo trước đó. Ngoài ra, ngân hàng đầu tư này còn dự báo dầu Brent chạm ngưỡng 100 USD trước khi kết thúc năm 2024.
Yếu tố nào có thể cản đà tăng của dầu?
Lãi suất ngày càng cao và nguy cơ suy thoái có thể kìm hãm đà tăng của giá dầu vì chúng tác động tới nhu cầu dầu.
Osama Rizvi, Chuyên viên phân tích tại Primary Vision, tỏ ra bi quan về giá dầu. Ông không nghĩ giá dầu thô sẽ sớm chạm mức 100 USD/thùng.
“Tôi vẫn bi quan về giá dầu. Thị trường đang hiểu sai động thái cắt giảm sản lượng. Điều OPEC+ muốn truyền tải là họ không thấy khả năng tăng trưởng kinh tế hoặc sự hồi phục nào cả, và do đó nhu cầu dầu sẽ suy giảm”, ông nói.
“Trước khi giá dầu rơi xuống mức có thể gây tổn thất tới nguồn thu của họ (điểm hòa vốn với nhiều nhà sản xuất dầu OPEC là 60-70 USD/thùng), OPEC+ quyết định điều chỉnh sản lượng dựa trên diễn biến cung cầu trên thị trường”, ông nói.
Cẩn thận mùa bão
Fernando C Hernandez, Chuyên viên phân tích năng lượng và là người đứng đầu Hernandez Analytica, cho biết mùa bão – thường bắt đầu vào tháng 6/2023 – có thể thúc đẩy giá dầu trong vài tháng tới.
Tuy nhiên, ông cho biết vẫn còn phải chờ xem liệu Mỹ có giải phóng dự trữ dầu khí chiến lược hay không.
“Chúng ta phải phân tích dữ liệu gần nhất của Cơ quan Thông tin Năng lượng Mỹ (EIA), trong đó cho thấy dự trữ đã giảm 133 triệu thùng so với năm trước và hiện ở mức 845.27 triệu thùng. Do đó, việc có giải phóng dự trữ chiến lược hay không sẽ là quyết định đầy thách thức cho Mỹ. Trước đây, dự trữ dầu khí chiến lược thường đóng vai trò quan trọng trong việc cung cấp hỗ trợ khi cơ sở hạ tầng của Mỹ bị tác động mạnh trong mùa bão”.
Chẳng hạn, cơn bão Ida tác động tới Mỹ trong tháng 8/2021 và khiến giá dầu tăng thêm 10%, vì các nhà máy lọc dầu ở vùng Vịnh nước Mỹ bị tác động, ông Hernandez nhấn mạnh.
“Quan trọng hơn, Mỹ đang dẫn đầu thế giới về năng suất lọc dầu. Vì vậy, nếu bão xảy ra và tác động tới khu vực lọc dầu, điều này sẽ gây tác động tới nguồn cung của thế giới và có thể đẩy giá dầu chạm 100 USD/thùng”, ông nói thêm.
Nguồn: https://fili.vn/2023/04/lieu-gia-dau-co-the-tro-lai-100-usdthung-34-1055785.htm
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