Thứ Bảy, Tháng Sáu 3, 2023

Phe đầu cơ giá lên của đồng Đô la Mỹ nhắm mục tiêu hướng đến các mức 104

  • Phe đầu cơ giá lên của đồng Đô la Mỹ hướng tới mức Fibonacci 38,2% gần 104,20 và mức hỗ trợ trước đó.

  • 102,80 bảo vệ triển vọng tiếp tục giảm xuống mức đáy 101,00 trong tháng 2.

Đồng Đô la Mỹ chịu áp lực vào thứ 2 do việc UBS buộc phải giảm giá sáp nhập đối thủ đang bị bao vây là Credit Suisse. Các ngân hàng đã cùng nhau thỏa thuận và đưa ra mức giá 3 tỷ franc Thụy Sĩ (3,23 tỷ USD) và giả định khoản lỗ lên tới 5,4 tỷ USD trong một vụ tiếp quản do chính quyền Thụy Sĩ dàn dựng.

Chỉ số Đô la Mỹ, DXY, đo lường giữa đồng Bạc xanh so với rổ các loại tiền tệ, đã chạm mức thấp nhất kể từ ngày 15 tháng 2 ở 103,27. Tuy nhiên, vẫn có những lo ngại về các ngân hàng khu vực của Mỹ. Cổ phiếu của First Republic đã giảm tới 50% vào thứ 2 và lần cuối giảm khoảng 39%. Ngoài ra, Ngân hàng trung ương Canada, Ngân hàng trung ương Anh, Ngân hàng trung ương Nhật Bản, Ngân hàng Trung ương Châu Âu, Cục Dự trữ Liên bang và Ngân hàng Quốc gia Thụy Sĩ đang phối hợp hành động để tăng cường cung cấp thanh khoản thông qua các thỏa thuận đường dây hoán đổi thanh khoản bằng đồng Đô la Mỹ chính.

Trong khi đó, quyết định mới nhất của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang về việc tăng lãi suất sẽ được đưa ra vào thứ 4 và tạo thêm một lớp bất ổn cho các nhà đầu tư. Lãi suất hiện đang đứng ở mức 4,5% đến 4,75%.

Các nhà phân tích tại TD Securities giải thích rằng họ “dự đoán một đợt tăng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản tại cuộc họp của Ủy ban Thị trường mở Liên bang (FOMC) vào tuần tới, đưa lãi suất quỹ liên bang lên 4,75% -5,00%. Thông tin sau cuộc họp có khả năng nhấn mạnh rằng Fed vẫn chưa hoàn thành việc thắt chặt chính sách tiền tệ (cũng được phản ánh trong biểu đồ dấu chấm diều hâu hơn một chút), với việc các quan chức cũng đánh dấu môi trường kinh tế không chắc chắn hơn, dẫn đến sự nhấn mạnh việc phụ thuộc vào dữ liệu thậm chí còn nhiều hơn.”

Phân tích kỹ thuật của đồng Đô la Mỹ

Biểu đồ

Biểu đồ

Từ các biểu đồ trên, có thể cho thấy xu hướng giảm giá khi thị trường đang ở phía sau xu hướng tăng trước đó. Một sự điều chỉnh có thể đang diễn ra tại đây và mức Fibonacci 38,2% đang tăng gần 104,20 và mức hỗ trợ trước đó có thể là mục tiêu. 102,80 bảo vệ triển vọng tiếp tục giảm xuống mức đáy 101,00 trong tháng 2.




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