Thứ Sáu, Tháng Chín 22, 2023
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Có nên bãi bỏ quy định trần lãi suất USD?

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Đây không phải là lần đầu tiên đề xuất bãi bỏ trần lãi suất tiền gửi USD được nêu ra, tuy nhiên trong bối cảnh hiện nay, kiến nghị này ít nhiều gây được sự chú ý.

Hiệu quả chính sách trần lãi suất USD

Tại Diễn đàn Doanh nghiệp Việt Nam thường niên (VBF) lần thứ 25 diễn ra mới đây, Hiệp hội Doanh nghiệp Hàn Quốc (KoCham) và Hiệp hội Doanh nghiệp Anh quốc tại Việt Nam (BritCham) đã đề nghị Ngân hàng Nhà nước (NHNN) bãi bỏ quy định về lãi tiền gửi đô la Mỹ lãi suất tối đa 0%.

Với việc Cục dự trữ liên bang Mỹ (Fed) đã tăng mạnh lãi suất cơ bản USD từ 0.25% lên 5% như hiện nay, KoCham đánh giá chi phí cơ hội của tiền gửi đô la Mỹ đối với các công ty Hàn Quốc đầu tư vào Việt Nam đang tăng nhanh, trở thành gánh nặng cho hoạt động kinh doanh. Trong khi đó, Britcham cho rằng việc không áp dụng tính lãi đối với tài khoản ngoại tệ có thể khiến doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu có xu hướng chuyển tiền ra nước ngoài khi nhận được những khoản ngoại tệ lớn thay vì để trong một tài khoản không có lãi hoặc chuyển đổi khoản tiền đó sang Việt Nam đồng.

Quyết định trần lãi suất tiền gửi USD ở 0% được áp dụng từ tháng 12/2015, nhằm giảm tình trạng đô la hóa trong nền kinh tế và mục tiêu hướng đến chuyển từ vay gửi ngoại tệ sang mua bán đứt đoạn, hạn chế bớt rủi ro tỷ giá. Không thể phủ nhận những kết quả tích cực mà chính sách này mang đến trong hơn 7 năm qua.

Thứ nhất, với chênh lệch lãi suất tiền gửi VNĐ và USD mở rộng ra khi tiền gửi USD không còn được trả lãi, đã góp phần thúc đẩy sự chuyển dịch từ USD sang tiền đồng, tạo điều kiện cho NHNN mua lượng lớn ngoại tệ để gia tăng dự trữ ngoại hối từ đó đến nay. Từ mức chỉ hơn 28 tỷ USD vào cuối năm 2015, dự trữ ngoại hối đã đạt đỉnh điểm 110 tỷ USD vào cuối năm 2021, tức tăng gần gấp 4 lần sau 6 năm.

Thứ hai, quy định này cũng góp phần hạn chế hiện tượng đầu cơ USD vốn đã diễn ra ồ ạt trong giai đoạn trước đây, mà đã có những thời điểm gây áp lực lên tỷ giá. Tuy nhiên, kể từ cuối năm 2015 đến nay, cùng với cơ chế tỷ giá trung tâm, thị trường ngoại hối trong nước đã không còn trải qua những cú sốc đột ngột như giai đoạn trước, tỷ giá USD/VNĐ ổn định hơn rất nhiều hoặc nếu mất cân bằng thì cũng sớm được nhà điều hành can thiệp kịp thời nhờ lượng dự trữ ngoại hối đã tích lũy được.

Thứ ba, tỷ lệ đô la hóa trong nền kinh tế cũng giảm xuống đáng kể. Theo Quỹ tiền tệ Quốc tế IMF, tỷ lệ đô la hóa được đo bằng tỷ lệ tiền gửi đồng USD trên tổng phương tiện thanh toán (FCD/M2), theo đó 10% là mức thấp còn từ 30% trở lên là thể hiện mức độ đô la hóa cao trong nền kinh tế. Trong giai đoạn trước đây, tỷ lệ này của Việt Nam luôn ở mức từ 20 -30%. Tuy nhiên, kể từ khi chính sách áp trần lãi suất 0%/năm có hiệu lực với tiền gửi USD từ cuối 2015, tỷ lệ đô la hóa đã giảm rất mạnh, xuống chỉ còn 8.92% vào cuối năm 2016 và xu hướng giảm này tiếp tục thể hiện khi hiện chỉ còn quanh 7%.

Có ảnh hưởng đến dòng vốn đầu tư?

Đây không phải là lần đầu tiên đề xuất bỏ trần lãi suất tiền gửi USD được nêu ra, tuy nhiên trong bối cảnh hiện nay kiến nghị này ít nhiều gây được sự chú ý. Nhìn lại quá khứ, nếu như trong giai đoạn 2011 – 2014, lãi suất tiền gửi USD trong nước cao hơn lãi suất cơ bản tại Mỹ từ 1 – 3%, thì sau khi NHNN giảm trần lãi suất tiền gửi về 0% từ cuối năm 2015 và duy trì cho đến nay, trong khi lãi suất cơ bản USD của Fed hiện đã lên 5%, có thể thấy lãi suất tiền gửi USD trong nước đang thấp hơn rất nhiều so với mức lãi suất cơ bản của Fed.

Diễn biến này gây ra một số lo ngại như có thể thúc đẩy dòng vốn ngoại tệ rút ra khỏi Việt Nam. Tuy nhiên, dòng vốn đầu tư vào Việt Nam những năm qua chủ yếu là vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài với thời gian có tính ổn định và cam kết lâu dài. Đối với dòng vốn đầu tư gián tiếp, chủ yếu bị thu hút bởi các thương vụ M&A hấp dẫn và tiềm năng tăng trưởng của thị trường chứng khoán, do đó sẽ ít bị ảnh hưởng bởi yếu tố lãi suất. Thực tế với những nhà đầu tư nước ngoài, khả năng sinh lời mà họ đòi hỏi khi đầu tư vào một nền kinh tế đang phát triển như Việt Nam có lẽ cao hơn nhiều so với mức lãi suất tiết kiệm chỉ vài % ít ỏi.

Với lãi suất tiền gửi 0% và các ngân hàng đang cho vay USD với lãi suất phổ biến từ 4-6% tùy theo kỳ hạn, nếu lãi suất đầu vào tăng lên lãi suất cho vay sẽ tăng tương ứng, khi đó nhóm khách hàng doanh nghiệp xuất nhập khẩu sẽ đối mặt với áp lực chi phí tài chính lớn hơn, từ đó giảm lợi thế cạnh tranh trên thị trường quốc tế.

Cũng cần biết rằng chỉ riêng đồng USD là bị áp trần lãi suất tiền gửi ở 0%, còn các loại ngoại tệ khác như Euro, yên Nhật, đô la Úc hay bảng Anh vẫn được một số nhà băng trả lãi suất phổ biến ở 0.1%/năm. Tuy nhiên, có thể thấy mức lãi suất thấp ở các loại ngoại tệ phổ biến này chủ yếu chỉ mang ý nghĩa tượng trưng, vì các ngân hàng về cơ bản cũng không có nhu cầu vốn quá lớn ở các loại ngoại tệ này. Do đó, trong trường hợp bỏ trần lãi suất tiền gửi USD để có thể thiết lập một mức lãi suất khác 0, lãi suất tiền gửi các loại ngoại tệ còn lại cũng buộc phải tăng lên tương ứng, điều mà các ngân hàng có lẽ cũng không mấy mặn mà.

Bởi vì với lãi suất tiền gửi ngoại tệ tăng lên, chi phí vốn đầu vào của các nhà băng cũng sẽ tăng tương ứng, càng ảnh hưởng đến mục tiêu ổn định hay kéo giảm lãi suất cho vay nói chung và từng loại ngoại tệ nói riêng. Đơn cử như USD, với lãi suất tiền gửi 0% và các ngân hàng đang cho vay USD với lãi suất phổ biến từ 4-6% tùy theo kỳ hạn, nếu lãi suất đầu vào tăng lên lãi suất cho vay sẽ tăng tương ứng, khi đó nhóm khách hàng doanh nghiệp xuất nhập khẩu sẽ đối mặt với áp lực chi phí tài chính lớn hơn, từ đó giảm lợi thế cạnh tranh trên thị trường quốc tế.

Ngoài ra, việc bỏ trần lãi suất tiền gửi USD cũng có thể thúc đẩy tình trạng đầu cơ ngoại tệ gia tăng và kéo tỷ lệ đô la hóa đi lên trở lại, khi việc nắm giữ USD và gửi ngân hàng lúc này vừa được hưởng lãi suất vừa kỳ vọng tỷ giá tiếp tục đi lên trong dài hạn. Tình trạng này kéo dài có thể mang lại một vòng xoáy tích trữ ngoại tệ và ngày càng gây áp lực lên thị trường ngoại hối.

Đối với đề xuất chỉ bãi bỏ quy định về lãi tiền gửi đô la Mỹ lãi suất tối đa 0% đối với các doanh nghiệp đang gửi đô la hoặc đầu tư trực tiếp (FDI) của tiền gửi đô la Mỹ ở một quy mô nhất định hoặc trên một quy mô nhất định, nếu thực thi có thể mang lại sự không công bằng giữa các nhóm khách hàng. Ngoài ra, cũng có thể dẫn đến những chiêu trò luồn lách để đưa dòng vốn USD của cá nhân gửi vào ngân hàng núp bóng dưới dạng tiền gửi của tổ chức để hưởng lãi suất.

 

Nguồn: https://fili.vn/2023/03/co-nen-bai-bo-quy-dinh-tran-lai-suat-usd-757-1052614.htm

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